Brighton vs Aston Villa preview, 2 Apr 2025: xG form

Viewing the 2024/25 seasonGo to 2026/27

Rashford 50'
Asensio 77'
Malen 99'

Premier League 2024/2025

GW30

02 Apr 18:45

S. Attwell

This match has been played.

See full analysis

BRI favoured at home, but only just.

BHA45%Draw24%AVL31%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Brighton1.6Villa1.3

A 0.3 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROBRI attack report PROAVL defence report

Drops right offHeavy counter-press

PROBRI shape report PROAVL shape report

Last 6, goals vs xG

BHA15 scored from 10.9 xG+4.1

AVL9 scored from 10.1 xG-1.1

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very lightFairly physical

Very low intensityVery high intensity

Sits deeperVery high line

Patient build-upMixed build-up

Central playEven width

CautiousMeasured risk

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BRI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Ayari	Corners L and R, 3 short	37	0.6
Estupiñán	Corners L and R, 5 short	37	0.9
O'Riley	Corners L and R, 6 short	36	1.4
Pedro	Penalties	5	3.8
Welbeck	Penalties	1	0.8
O'Riley	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

28%

Free kicks

25%

AVL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Tielemans	Corners L and R, 11 short	84	3.1
Tielemans	Free kicks	57	2.7
Watkins	Penalties	2	1.5
Asensio

PROBRI set pieces PROAVL set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

38%

Free kicks

23%

BrightonBrighton
0-3
Aston VillaVilla

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers