Brighton vs Chelsea preview, 14 Feb 2025: xG form

14 Feb 20:00

C. Kavanagh

This match has been played.

See full analysis

CHE favoured away from home, but only just.

BHA37%Draw25%CHE39%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Brighton1.4Chelsea1.5

Next to nothing between them on expected goals, this one could go either way.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROBRI attack report PROCHE defence report

Very lightFairly physical

PROBRI shape report PROCHE shape report

Last 6, goals vs xG

BHA15 scored from 10.9 xG+4.1

CHE8 scored from 8.4 xG-0.4

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Sits offHeavy counter-press

Very centralEven width

High intensityVery high intensity

Very cautiousMeasured risk

Presses higherVery high line

Possession-basedMixed build-up

TechnicalVery technical

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BRI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Ayari	Corners L and R, 3 short	37	0.6
Estupiñán	Corners L and R, 5 short	37	0.9
O'Riley	Corners L and R, 6 short	36	1.4
Pedro	Penalties	5	3.8
Welbeck	Penalties	1	0.8
O'Riley	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

28%

Free kicks

25%

CHE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Fernández	Corners L and R, 17 short	75	1.3
Palmer	Corners L and R, 22 short	74	2.9
Neto	Corners L and R, 19 short	55	1.0
Palmer

PROBRI set pieces PROCHE set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Free kicks

30%

Corners

29%

BrightonBrighton
3-0
ChelseaChelsea
Mitoma 26'
Minteh 37'
Minteh

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers