Brighton vs Fulham preview, 8 Mar 2025: xG form

08 Mar 15:00

S. Barrott

This match has been played.

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BRI favoured at home, but only just.

BHA43%Draw25%FUL32%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Brighton1.5Fulham1.2

A 0.2 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROBRI attack report PROFUL defence report

Low intensityVery high intensity

PROBRI shape report PROFUL shape report

Last 6, goals vs xG

BHA15 scored from 10.9 xG+4.1

FUL7 scored from 8.7 xG-1.7

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Mid-blockVery high line

Middling physicalityFairly physical

Mixed responseHeavy counter-press

Middling controlTechnical

Mixed build-upFairly direct

CautiousMeasured risk

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BRI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Ayari	Corners L and R, 3 short	37	0.6
Estupiñán	Corners L and R, 5 short	37	0.9
O'Riley	Corners L and R, 6 short	36	1.4
Pedro	Penalties	5	3.8
Welbeck	Penalties	1	0.8
O'Riley	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

28%

Free kicks

25%

FUL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Pereira	Corners L and R, 11 short	109	3.4
Lukić	Corners L and R, 6 short	42	1.0
Pereira	Free kicks	35	0.7
Wilson

PROBRI set pieces PROFUL set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

38%

Throw-ins

31%

BrightonBrighton
2-1
FulhamFulham
van Hecke 40'
Pedro (P) 97'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers