Brighton vs Manchester City preview, 9 Nov 2024: xG form

09 Nov 17:30

S. Barrott

This match has been played.

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MCI favoured away from home, but only just.

BHA36%Draw25%MCI39%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Brighton1.4Man City1.5

A 0.1 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROBRI attack report PROMCI defence report

Drops right offHeavy counter-press

PROBRI shape report PROMCI shape report

Last 6, goals vs xG

BHA15 scored from 10.9 xG+4.1

MCI10 scored from 11.0 xG-1.0

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

LightFairly physical

Very centralEven width

Middling intensityVery high intensity

Patient build-upMixed build-up

Very cautiousMeasured risk

Presses higherVery high line

TechnicalVery technical

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BRI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Ayari	Corners L and R, 3 short	37	0.6
Estupiñán	Corners L and R, 5 short	37	0.9
O'Riley	Corners L and R, 6 short	36	1.4
Pedro	Penalties	5	3.8
Welbeck	Penalties	1	0.8
O'Riley	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

28%

Free kicks

25%

MCI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Bruyne	Corners L and R, 33 short	94	2.7
Gündoğan	Corners L and R, 9 short	46	1.7
Foden	Corners L and R, 6 short	46	2.3
Bruyne

PROBRI set pieces PROMCI set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

46%

Throw-ins

26%

BrightonBrighton
2-1
Manchester CityMan City
Pedro 77'
O'Riley 82'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers