Brighton & Hove Albion vs Manchester United preview, 24 Aug 2024: xG form

24 Aug 11:30

C. Pawson

This match has been played.

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BRI favoured at home, but only just.

BHA45%Draw25%MUN31%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Brighton1.6Man Utd1.3

A 0.3 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

BRI attack

PROBRI attack report PROMUN defence report

Both sides on eight style axes, possession to direct, low block to high press, against the rest of the league.After gameweek 1

PROBRI shape report PROMUN shape report

MUN attack

LW0.45

CF0.42

RW0.37

CAM0.24

CDM0.13

CM0.24

LB0.08

CB0.16

RB0.16

Last 6, goals vs xG

BHA15 scored from 10.9 xG+4.1

MUN6 scored from 10.8 xG-4.8

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BRI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Ayari	Corners L and R, 3 short	37	0.6
Estupiñán	Corners L and R, 5 short	37	0.9
O'Riley	Corners L and R, 6 short	36	1.4
Pedro	Penalties	5	3.8
Welbeck	Penalties	1	0.8
O'Riley	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

28%

Free kicks

25%

MUN Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Fernandes	Corners L and R, 14 short	91	2.7
Fernandes	Free kicks	69	2.8
Eriksen	Corners L and R, 13 short	62	1.8
Diallo

PROBRI set pieces PROMUN set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

46%

Free kicks

21%

Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton
2-1
Manchester UnitedMan Utd
Welbeck 31'
Pedro 94'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers