Brighton vs Newcastle Utd preview, 4 May 2025: xG form

This match has been played.

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BRI favoured at home, but only just.

BHA43%Draw24%NEW34%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Brighton1.7Newcastle1.5

A 0.2 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROBRI attack report PRONEW defence report

LightFairly physical

PROBRI shape report PRONEW shape report

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Player	Rating					Rotation
D. WelbeckCF · BRI	--	24%	5%	0.46	72%	Medium	0.20
H. BarnesWG · NEW	--	20%	8%	0.55	56%	Medium	0.36
K. MitomaWG · BRI	--	18%	7%	0.43	61%	High	0.33
Y. MintehWG · BRI	--	18%	10%	0.54	56%	High	0.28
J. MurphyWG · NEW	--	15%	15%	0.48	69%	Low	0.06
Bruno GuimarãesCM · NEW	--	13%	11%	0.26	100%	Low	0.13

42 more players

BRI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Ayari	Corners L and R, 3 short	37	0.6
Estupiñán	Corners L and R, 5 short	37	0.9
O'Riley	Corners L and R, 6 short	36	1.4
Pedro	Penalties	5	3.8
Welbeck	Penalties	1	0.8
O'Riley	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

28%

Free kicks

25%

NEW Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Trippier	Corners L and R, 12 short	61	1.6
Hall	Corners L and R, 6 short	56	2.1
Gordon	Corners L and R, 8 short	53	1.2
Hall

PROBRI set pieces PRONEW set pieces

BrightonBrighton
1-1
Newcastle UtdNewcastle
Minteh 27'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers