Brighton vs Nottingham Forest preview, 22 Sep 2024: xG form

Viewing the 2024/25 seasonGo to 2026/27

Wood (P) 12'
Sosa 69'

Premier League 2024/2025

GW5

22 Sep 13:00

R. Jones

This match has been played.

See full analysis

BRI favoured at home, but only just.

BHA45%Draw25%NFO30%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Brighton1.6Forest1.2

A 0.3 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROBRI attack report PRONFO defence report

Very low intensityVery high intensity

PROBRI shape report PRONFO shape report

Last 6, goals vs xG

BHA15 scored from 10.9 xG+4.1

NFO7 scored from 7.7 xG-0.7

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Sits deeperVery high line

Very scrappyTechnical

Measured riskVery bold

Mixed build-upVery direct

Middling physicalityFairly physical

Heavy counter-pressHeavy counter-press

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BRI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Ayari	Corners L and R, 3 short	37	0.6
Estupiñán	Corners L and R, 5 short	37	0.9
O'Riley	Corners L and R, 6 short	36	1.4
Pedro	Penalties	5	3.8
Welbeck	Penalties	1	0.8
O'Riley	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

28%

Free kicks

25%

NFO Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Elanga	Corners L and R, 8 short	85	3.0
Murillo	Free kicks	51	0.7
Anderson	Corners L and R, 2 short	48	4.5
Aina

PROBRI set pieces PRONFO set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

49%

Free kicks

23%

BrightonBrighton
2-2
Nottingham ForestForest
Hinshelwood 41'
Welbeck 45'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers