Brighton vs Southampton preview, 29 Nov 2024: xG form

29 Nov 20:00

R. Jones

This match has been played.

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BRI clear favourites at home.

BHA65%Draw20%SOU16%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Brighton2.1Southampton0.9

A 1.2 xG edge, roughly a two-in-three win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROBRI attack report PROSouthampton defence report

Deep blockVery high line

PROBRI shape report PROSouthampton shape report

Last 6, goals vs xG

BHA15 scored from 10.9 xG+4.1

SOU3 scored from 4.8 xG-1.8

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very low intensityVery high intensity

Drops right offHeavy counter-press

Very centralEven width

LightFairly physical

Patient build-upMixed build-up

Very cautiousMeasured risk

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

BRI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Ayari	Corners L and R, 3 short	37	0.6
Estupiñán	Corners L and R, 5 short	37	0.9
O'Riley	Corners L and R, 6 short	36	1.4
Pedro	Penalties	5	3.8
Welbeck	Penalties	1	0.8
O'Riley	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

28%

Free kicks

25%

Southampton Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Fernandes	Corners L and R, 2 short	53	1.6
Fernandes	Free kicks	40	0.6
Manning	Corners L and R, 2 short	32	1.1
Smallbone

PROBRI set pieces PROSouthampton set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

40%

Free kicks

32%

BrightonBrighton
1-1
SouthamptonSouthampton
Mitoma 28'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers