Brighton vs West Ham Utd preview, 26 Apr 2025: xG form

This match has been played.

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BRI favoured at home, but only just.

BHA53%Draw23%WHU24%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Brighton1.8West Ham1.2

A 0.7 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROBRI attack report PROWHU defence report

Sits deeperVery high line

PROBRI shape report PROWHU shape report

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Player	Rating					Rotation
J. BowenCF · WHU	--	27%	15%	0.51	96%	Low	0.31
D. WelbeckCF · BRI	--	26%	6%	0.54	69%	Medium	0.11
Y. MintehWG · BRI	--	21%	12%	0.61	60%	Medium	0.05
K. MitomaWG · BRI	--	20%	8%	0.46	66%	High	0.29
J. HinshelwoodFB · BRI	--	15%	5%	0.25	88%	Medium	0.40
Y. AyariCM · BRI	--	13%	7%	0.31	68%	High	0.24

35 more players

BRI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Ayari	Corners L and R, 3 short	37	0.6
Estupiñán	Corners L and R, 5 short	37	0.9
O'Riley	Corners L and R, 6 short	36	1.4
Pedro	Penalties	5	3.8
Welbeck	Penalties	1	0.8
O'Riley	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

28%

Free kicks

25%

WHU Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Bowen	Corners L and R, 3 short	44	1.1
Ward-Prowse	Corners L and R, 1 short	34	0.8
Palmieri	Corners L and R, 2 short	25	1.2
Ward-Prowse

PROBRI set pieces PROWHU set pieces

BrightonBrighton
3-2
West Ham UtdWest Ham
Ayari 12'
Mitoma 88'
Baleba

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers