Chelsea vs Crystal Palace preview, 1 Sep 2024: xG form

01 Sep 12:30

J. Gillett

This match has been played.

See full analysis

CHE favoured at home, but only just.

CHE48%Draw24%CRY27%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Chelsea1.7C. Palace1.2

A 0.5 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROCHE attack report PROCRY defence report

Very scrappyVery technical

PROCHE shape report PROCRY shape report

Last 6, goals vs xG

CHE8 scored from 8.4 xG-0.4

CRY10 scored from 9.8 xG+0.2

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very cautiousVery bold

Very lightPhysically dominant

Sits offHeavy counter-press

Very centralWide play

Possession-basedVery direct

Sits deeperPresses higher

Low intensityHigh intensity

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

CHE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Fernández	Corners L and R, 17 short	75	1.3
Palmer	Corners L and R, 22 short	74	2.9
Neto	Corners L and R, 19 short	55	1.0
Palmer	Free kicks	27	1.6
Fernández	Free kicks	24	0.9
Palmer	Penalties	5	3.8

Share of set-play xG

Free kicks

30%

Corners

29%

CRY Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Eze	Free kicks	62	1.8
Eze	Corners L and R, 10 short	61	1.3
Hughes	Corners L and R, 7 short	54	3.7
Lerma

PROCHE set pieces PROCRY set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

49%

Throw-ins

19%

ChelseaChelsea
1-1
Crystal PalaceC. Palace
Jackson 24'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers