Chelsea vs Leicester City preview, 9 Mar 2025: xG form

09 Mar 14:00

T. Robinson

This match has been played.

See full analysis

CHE clear favourites at home.

CHE73%Draw16%LEI11%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Chelsea2.5Leicester0.9

A 1.6 xG edge, roughly a three-in-four win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROCHE attack report PROLeicester City defence report

Deep blockPresses higher

PROCHE shape report PROLeicester City shape report

Last 6, goals vs xG

CHE8 scored from 8.4 xG-0.4

LEI6 scored from 5.6 xG+0.4

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very centralWide play

Very cautiousTakes risks

ScrappyVery technical

Very lightMiddling physicality

Low intensityHigh intensity

Possession-basedMixed build-up

Sits offMixed response

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

CHE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Fernández	Corners L and R, 17 short	75	1.3
Palmer	Corners L and R, 22 short	74	2.9
Neto	Corners L and R, 19 short	55	1.0
Palmer	Free kicks	27	1.6
Fernández	Free kicks	24	0.9
Palmer	Penalties	5	3.8

Share of set-play xG

Free kicks

30%

Corners

29%

Leicester City Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Khannouss	Corners L and R, 6 short	36	0.6
Ayew	Corners L and R, 2 short	28	1.1
Buonanotte	Corners L and R, 5 short	26	1.0
Khannouss

PROCHE set pieces PROLeicester City set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

38%

Free kicks

28%

ChelseaChelsea
1-0
Leicester CityLeicester
Cucurella 59'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers