Chelsea vs Liverpool preview, 4 May 2025: xG form

This match has been played.

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LIV favoured away from home, but only just.

CHE34%Draw24%LIV41%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Chelsea1.4Liverpool1.6

A 0.2 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROCHE attack report PROLIV defence report

High intensityVery high intensity

PROCHE shape report PROLIV shape report

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Player	Rating					Rotation
C. PalmerCAM · CHE	--	24%	16%	0.48	96%	Low	0.16
C. GakpoWG · LIV	--	23%	6%	0.57	56%	Medium	0.20
Pedro NetoWG · CHE	--	18%	15%	0.40	88%	Medium	0.10
E. FernándezCM · CHE	--	16%	11%	0.30	96%	Low	0.20
D. SzoboszlaiCAM · LIV	--	11%	13%	0.36	71%	Low	0.21
Marc CucurellaFB · CHE	--	10%	4%	0.15	96%	Low	0.02

44 more players

CHE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Fernández	Corners L and R, 17 short	75	1.3
Palmer	Corners L and R, 22 short	74	2.9
Neto	Corners L and R, 19 short	55	1.0
Palmer	Free kicks	27	1.6
Fernández	Free kicks	24	0.9
Palmer	Penalties	5	3.8

Share of set-play xG

Free kicks

30%

Corners

29%

LIV Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Allister	Corners L and R, 8 short	72	2.8
Robertson	Corners L and R, 4 short	59	1.6
Alexander-Arnold	Corners L and R, 8 short	55	2.0
Tsimikas

PROCHE set pieces PROLIV set pieces

ChelseaChelsea
3-1
LiverpoolLiverpool
Fernández 2'
Quansah (OG) 55'
Palmer (P)

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers