Chelsea vs Southampton preview, 25 Feb 2025: xG form

25 Feb 20:15

T. Bramall

This match has been played.

See full analysis

CHE clear favourites at home.

CHE69%Draw18%SOU13%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Chelsea2.3Southampton0.9

A 1.4 xG edge, roughly a two-in-three win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROCHE attack report PROSouthampton defence report

Deep blockPresses higher

PROCHE shape report PROSouthampton shape report

Last 6, goals vs xG

CHE8 scored from 8.4 xG-0.4

SOU3 scored from 4.8 xG-1.8

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very low intensityHigh intensity

Drops right offSits off

Patient build-upPossession-based

TechnicalVery technical

Very centralVery central

Very cautiousVery cautious

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

CHE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Fernández	Corners L and R, 17 short	75	1.3
Palmer	Corners L and R, 22 short	74	2.9
Neto	Corners L and R, 19 short	55	1.0
Palmer	Free kicks	27	1.6
Fernández	Free kicks	24	0.9
Palmer	Penalties	5	3.8

Share of set-play xG

Free kicks

30%

Corners

29%

Southampton Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Fernandes	Corners L and R, 2 short	53	1.6
Fernandes	Free kicks	40	0.6
Manning	Corners L and R, 2 short	32	1.1
Smallbone

PROCHE set pieces PROSouthampton set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

40%

Free kicks

32%

ChelseaChelsea
4-0
SouthamptonSouthampton
Nkunku 23'
Neto 35'
Colwill

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers