Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa preview, 25 Feb 2025: xG form

25 Feb 19:30

S. Barrott

This match has been played.

See full analysis

CRY favoured at home, but only just.

CRY42%Draw25%AVL33%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

C. Palace1.5Villa1.3

A 0.2 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROCRY attack report PROAVL defence report

Drops right offHeavy counter-press

PROCRY shape report PROAVL shape report

Last 6, goals vs xG

CRY10 scored from 9.8 xG+0.2

AVL9 scored from 10.1 xG-1.1

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very lightPhysically dominant

Patient build-upVery direct

Very scrappyTechnical

Central playWide play

Very low intensityLow intensity

Sits deeperSits deeper

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

CRY Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Eze	Free kicks	62	1.8
Eze	Corners L and R, 10 short	61	1.3
Hughes	Corners L and R, 7 short	54	3.7
Lerma	Throw-ins	39	0.5
Mateta	Penalties	2	1.5
Eze	Penalties	2	1.5

Share of set-play xG

Corners

49%

Throw-ins

19%

AVL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Tielemans	Corners L and R, 11 short	84	3.1
Tielemans	Free kicks	57	2.7
Watkins	Penalties	2	1.5
Asensio

PROCRY set pieces PROAVL set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

38%

Free kicks

23%

Crystal PalaceC. Palace
4-1
Aston VillaVilla
Sarr 28'
Mateta 58'
Sarr

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers