Everton vs Aston Villa preview, 15 Jan 2025: xG form

15 Jan 19:30

S. Barrott

This match has been played.

See full analysis

AVL favoured away from home, but only just.

EVE35%Draw27%AVL38%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Everton1.2Villa1.3

A 0.1 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROEVE attack report PROAVL defence report

Very lightPhysically dominant

PROEVE shape report PROAVL shape report

Last 6, goals vs xG

EVE8 scored from 6.8 xG+1.2

AVL9 scored from 10.1 xG-1.1

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Patient build-upVery direct

Central playVery wide

Drops right offCounter-presses

Very scrappyTechnical

Sits deeperMid-block

Very low intensityLow intensity

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

EVE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
McNeil	Corners L and R, 4 short	45	1.7
McNeil	Free kicks	33	1.1
Harrison	Corners R, 2 short	32	1.8
Lindstrøm	Corners L and R, 4 short	25	0.7
Garner	Corners L and R, 1 short	23	0.7
Ndiaye	Penalties	2	1.5

Share of set-play xG

Corners

47%

Free kicks

22%

AVL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Tielemans	Corners L and R, 11 short	84	3.1
Tielemans	Free kicks	57	2.7
Watkins	Penalties	2	1.5
Asensio

PROEVE set pieces PROAVL set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

38%

Free kicks

23%

EvertonEverton
0-1
Aston VillaVilla

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers