Fulham vs Newcastle Utd preview, 21 Sep 2024: xG form

21 Sep 14:00

P. Bankes

This match has been played.

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FUL favoured at home, but only just.

FUL40%Draw25%NEW36%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Fulham1.5Newcastle1.4

A 0.1 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROFUL attack report PRONEW defence report

Low intensityHigh intensity

PROFUL shape report PRONEW shape report

Last 6, goals vs xG

FUL7 scored from 8.7 xG-1.7

NEW7 scored from 9.6 xG-2.6

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Possession-basedFairly direct

LightMiddling physicality

Mid-blockPresses higher

Middling controlMiddling control

Mixed responseMixed response

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

FUL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Pereira	Corners L and R, 11 short	109	3.4
Lukić	Corners L and R, 6 short	42	1.0
Pereira	Free kicks	35	0.7
Wilson	Corners L and R, 7 short	27	0.4
Jiménez	Penalties	3	2.3
Pereira	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

38%

Throw-ins

31%

NEW Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Trippier	Corners L and R, 12 short	61	1.6
Hall	Corners L and R, 6 short	56	2.1
Gordon	Corners L and R, 8 short	53	1.2
Hall

PROFUL set pieces PRONEW set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

36%

Throw-ins

26%

FulhamFulham
3-1
Newcastle UtdNewcastle
Jiménez 4'
Rowe 21'
Nelson

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers