Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa preview, 29 Sep 2024: xG form

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Rogers 14'
Watkins 31'

Premier League 2024/2025

GW6

29 Sep 13:00

S. Attwell

This match has been played.

See full analysis

AVL favoured away from home, but only just.

IPS25%Draw24%AVL51%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Ipswich1.2Villa1.7

A 0.6 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROIpswich Town attack report PROAVL defence report

Very lightFairly physical

PROIpswich Town shape report PROAVL shape report

Last 6, goals vs xG

IPS3 scored from 6.6 xG-3.6

AVL9 scored from 10.1 xG-1.1

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Patient build-upFairly direct

Very scrappyTechnical

Deep blockSits deeper

Central playEven width

Drops right offDrops right off

Very low intensityVery low intensity

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

Ipswich Town Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Davis	Corners L and R, 10 short	80	2.4
Davis	Free kicks	45	1.7
Cajuste	Throw-ins	35	0.7
Morsy	Free kicks	21	0.4
Davis	Throw-ins	13	0.3
Delap	Penalties	2	1.5

Share of set-play xG

Corners

44%

Free kicks

23%

AVL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Tielemans	Corners L and R, 11 short	84	3.1
Tielemans	Free kicks	57	2.7
Watkins	Penalties	2	1.5
Asensio

PROIpswich Town set pieces PROAVL set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

38%

Free kicks

23%

Ipswich TownIpswich
2-2
Aston VillaVilla
Delap 7'
Delap 71'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers