Ipswich Town vs Brighton preview, 16 Jan 2025: xG form

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This match has been played.

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BRI clear favourites away from home.

IPS23%Draw23%BHA54%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Ipswich1.1Brighton1.8

A 0.7 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROIpswich Town attack report PROBRI defence report

Deep blockVery high line

PROIpswich Town shape report PROBRI shape report

Mitoma 58'
Rutter 81'

Premier League 2024/2025

GW21

16 Jan 19:30

T. Harrington

Last 6, goals vs xG

IPS3 scored from 6.6 xG-3.6

BHA15 scored from 10.9 xG+4.1

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very low intensityVery high intensity

Drops right offHeavy counter-press

Very scrappyTechnical

Measured riskTakes risks

Mixed build-upFairly direct

Even widthEven width

Fairly physicalFairly physical

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

Ipswich Town Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Davis	Corners L and R, 10 short	80	2.4
Davis	Free kicks	45	1.7
Cajuste	Throw-ins	35	0.7
Morsy	Free kicks	21	0.4
Davis	Throw-ins	13	0.3
Delap	Penalties	2	1.5

Share of set-play xG

Corners

44%

Free kicks

23%

BRI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Ayari	Corners L and R, 3 short	37	0.6
Estupiñán	Corners L and R, 5 short	37	0.9
O'Riley	Corners L and R, 6 short	36	1.4
Pedro

PROIpswich Town set pieces PROBRI set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

28%

Free kicks

25%

Ipswich TownIpswich
0-2
BrightonBrighton

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers