Liverpool vs Chelsea preview, 20 Oct 2024: xG form

20 Oct 15:30

J. Brooks

This match has been played.

See full analysis

LIV favoured at home, but only just.

LIV49%Draw23%CHE28%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Liverpool1.8Chelsea1.3

A 0.5 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROLIV attack report PROCHE defence report

High intensityVery high intensity

PROLIV shape report PROCHE shape report

Last 6, goals vs xG

LIV12 scored from 15.2 xG-3.2

CHE8 scored from 8.4 xG-0.4

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Presses higherVery high line

Possession-basedMixed build-up

Sits offMixed response

Very centralCentral play

Very cautiousCautious

Very technicalVery technical

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

LIV Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Allister	Corners L and R, 8 short	72	2.8
Robertson	Corners L and R, 4 short	59	1.6
Alexander-Arnold	Corners L and R, 8 short	55	2.0
Tsimikas	Corners L and R, 3 short	41	1.5
Alexander-Arnold	Free kicks	19	0.3
Salah	Penalties	9	6.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

42%

Penalties

27%

CHE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Fernández	Corners L and R, 17 short	75	1.3
Palmer	Corners L and R, 22 short	74	2.9
Neto	Corners L and R, 19 short	55	1.0
Palmer

PROLIV set pieces PROCHE set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Free kicks

30%

Corners

29%

LiverpoolLiverpool
2-1
ChelseaChelsea
Salah (P) 28'
Jones 51'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers