Newcastle United vs Manchester United preview, 13 Apr 2025: xG form

This match has been played.

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NEW favoured at home, but only just.

NEW44%Draw24%MUN32%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Newcastle1.7Man Utd1.4

A 0.3 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

NEW attack

PRONEW attack report PROMUN defence report

Both sides on eight style axes, possession to direct, low block to high press, against the rest of the league.After gameweek 1

PRONEW shape report PROMUN shape report

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Player	Rating					Rotation
H. BarnesWG · NEW	--	23%	10%	0.63	57%	Medium	0.58
R. HøjlundCF · MUN	--	22%	7%	0.44	73%	Medium	0.28
JoelintonCM · NEW	--	19%	7%	0.38	74%	Low	0.20
J. MurphyWG · NEW	--	19%	16%	0.55	69%	Low	0.08
Bruno FernandesCAM · MUN	--	17%	25%	0.48	100%	Low	0.03
J. ZirkzeeCF · MUN	--	15%	6%	0.42	54%	High	0.08

48 more players

NEW Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Trippier	Corners L and R, 12 short	61	1.6
Hall	Corners L and R, 6 short	56	2.1
Gordon	Corners L and R, 8 short	53	1.2
Hall	Free kicks	32	0.9
Isak	Penalties	4	3.0
Gordon	Penalties	2	1.5

Share of set-play xG

Corners

36%

Throw-ins

26%

MUN Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Fernandes	Corners L and R, 14 short	91	2.7
Fernandes	Free kicks	69	2.8
Eriksen	Corners L and R, 13 short	62	1.8
Diallo

PRONEW set pieces PROMUN set pieces

Newcastle UnitedNewcastle
4-1
Manchester UnitedMan Utd
Tonali 23'
Barnes 48'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers