Newcastle Utd vs Manchester Utd Preview: What the xG Data Says

Premier League 2024/2025

GW32

13 Apr 15:30

C. Kavanagh

This match has been played.

See full analysis

Pre-Match Signals

MUN concede just 0.9 xGA per match vs NEW's 1.8. That gap should show in chance quality

FavoursMUNSubscribers see the evidence behind this

Goals are diverging from expected levels on both sides, suggesting regression could hit either team's attack

Subscribers see the evidence behind this

Newcastle United

Last 9 home games5W · 2D · 2L · 56% wins

Solid form (wasteful in front of goal)

2.0 goals per game (xG expected: 2.4)

Below expected

1.7 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.6)

On track

Manchester United

Last 11 away games5W · 5D · 1L · 45% wins

Solid form (clinical finishing)

1.9 goals per game (xG expected: 1.7)

Above expected

1.4 conceded per game (xGA expected: 1.3)

On track

Player
Wissa NEW	0.49	0.44	2.31	82
Mbeumo MUN	0.52	0.22	1.97	92
Cunha MUN	0.52	0.31	3.25	89

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Tactical Analysis

How these teams play and where the match could be decided

Possession-based ↔ Direct

Low Block ↔ High Press

Conservative ↔ Risk-taking

Central Play ↔ Wide Play

Scrappy ↔ Technical

Light ↔ Physically Dominant

Sit Off ↔ Counter-Press

Low Intensity ↔ High Intensity

Newcastle United

Manchester United

Possession-based ↔ Direct

Low Block ↔ High Press

Conservative ↔ Risk-taking

Central Play ↔ Wide Play

Least vulnerable Average Most vulnerable

MUN(38 matches)

Σ GI

CAM

CDM

2.24

0.421st

0.451st

0.371st

0.241st

0.131st

0.081st

0.161st

GI = Goals + Assists / matchxG = Expected Goals / matchxT = Expected Threat / match

Did the defensive gap show in chance quality?

Did finishing regression show up, or did luck hold?

Come back after the final whistle.

Newcastle United form

Scrappy ↔ Technical

Light ↔ Physically Dominant

Sit Off ↔ Counter-Press

Low Intensity ↔ High Intensity

Player
Wissa NEW	0.49	0.44	2.31	82
Mbeumo MUN	0.52	0.22	1.97	92
Cunha MUN	0.52	0.31	3.25	89

39 more players, opponent-adjusted columns and last-6 trendsSign Up Sign Up

Newcastle UtdNewcastle
4-1
Manchester UtdMan Utd
Tonali 23'
Barnes 48'
Barnes

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

NEW

MUN

MUN

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Position vs Expected Position

Form & Head-to-head

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

NEW

MUN

MUN

Pre-Match Signals

Venue Form

Players who decide this

NEW

MUN

MUN

Tactical Analysis

Style and key characteristics

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Attacking Zones

Style and key characteristics

Positional Vulnerabilities

Questions for after full-time

Manchester United formWWWDW

Head-to-head · last 5

Intensity, discipline, and resilience

Players who decide this

NEW

MUN

MUN