Nottingham Forest vs Brentford preview, 1 May 2025: xG form

This match has been played.

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NFO favoured at home, but only just.

NFO47%Draw24%BRE29%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Forest1.7Brentford1.3

A 0.4 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PRONFO attack report PROBRE defence report

Sits deeperPresses higher

PRONFO shape report PROBRE shape report

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Player	Rating					Rotation
C. WoodCF · NFO	--	31%	6%	0.62	70%	Low	0.46
M. Gibbs-WhiteCAM · NFO	--	22%	16%	0.43	98%	Low	0.10
K. SchadeWG · BRE	--	19%	7%	0.46	61%	Low	0.13
C. Hudson-OdoiWG · NFO	--	15%	8%	0.38	64%	Medium	0.08
K. Lewis-PotterFB · BRE	--	15%	8%	0.32	76%	Low	0.29
N. MilenkovićCB · NFO	--	12%	3%	0.16	100%	Low	0.00

32 more players

NFO Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Elanga	Corners L and R, 8 short	85	3.0
Murillo	Free kicks	51	0.7
Anderson	Corners L and R, 2 short	48	4.5
Aina	Throw-ins	45	1.0
Elanga	Free kicks	34	1.5
Wood	Penalties	3	2.3

Share of set-play xG

Corners

49%

Free kicks

23%

BRE Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Mbeumo	Corners L and R, 15 short	86	4.0
Damsgaard	Corners L, 8 short	59	1.5
Mbeumo	Free kicks	39	0.7
Schade

PRONFO set pieces PROBRE set pieces

Nottingham ForestForest
0-2
BrentfordBrentford

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers