Nottingham Forest vs Southampton preview, 19 Jan 2025: xG form

19 Jan 14:00

A. Taylor

This match has been played.

See full analysis

NFO clear favourites at home.

NFO59%Draw22%SOU19%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Forest1.9Southampton1.0

A 0.9 xG edge, roughly a three-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PRONFO attack report PROSouthampton defence report

Very cautiousVery bold

PRONFO shape report PROSouthampton shape report

Last 6, goals vs xG

NFO7 scored from 7.7 xG-0.7

SOU3 scored from 4.8 xG-1.8

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very centralVery wide

Drops right offHeavy counter-press

Patient build-upVery direct

Very scrappyTechnical

LightMiddling physicality

Deep blockSits deeper

Very low intensityVery low intensity

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

NFO Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Elanga	Corners L and R, 8 short	85	3.0
Murillo	Free kicks	51	0.7
Anderson	Corners L and R, 2 short	48	4.5
Aina	Throw-ins	45	1.0
Elanga	Free kicks	34	1.5
Wood	Penalties	3	2.3

Share of set-play xG

Corners

49%

Free kicks

23%

Southampton Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Fernandes	Corners L and R, 2 short	53	1.6
Fernandes	Free kicks	40	0.6
Manning	Corners L and R, 2 short	32	1.1
Smallbone

PRONFO set pieces PROSouthampton set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

40%

Free kicks

32%

Nottingham ForestForest
3-2
SouthamptonSouthampton
Anderson 10'
Hudson-Odoi 27'
Wood

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers