Southampton vs Aston Villa preview, 12 Apr 2025: xG form

This match has been played.

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AVL clear favourites away from home.

SOU23%Draw23%AVL54%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Southampton1.1Villa1.8

A 0.7 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROSouthampton attack report PROAVL defence report

Very lightLight

PROSouthampton shape report PROAVL shape report

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Player	Rating					Rotation
O. WatkinsCF · AVL	--	44%	13%	0.87	82%	Medium	1.30
M. RogersCAM · AVL	--	27%	13%	0.55	83%	Low	0.06
C. ArcherCF · Southampton	--	14%	4%	0.39	48%	High	0.37
J. McGinnWG · AVL	--	11%	10%	0.33	70%	Medium	0.80
A. OnanaCM · AVL	--	9%	4%	0.27	51%	High	0.04
T. Harwood-BellisCB · Southampton	--	9%	2%	0.12	100%	Low	0.15

35 more players

Southampton Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Fernandes	Corners L and R, 2 short	53	1.6
Fernandes	Free kicks	40	0.6
Manning	Corners L and R, 2 short	32	1.1
Smallbone	Corners L and R, 4 short	26	0.6
Archer	Penalties	1	0.8
Armstrong	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

40%

Free kicks

32%

AVL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Tielemans	Corners L and R, 11 short	84	3.1
Tielemans	Free kicks	57	2.7
Watkins	Penalties	2	1.5
Asensio

PROSouthampton set pieces PROAVL set pieces

SouthamptonSouthampton
0-3
Aston VillaVilla

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers