Southampton vs Fulham preview, 26 Apr 2025: xG form

This match has been played.

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FUL favoured away from home, but only just.

SOU23%Draw24%FUL54%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Southampton1.0Fulham1.7

A 0.7 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROSouthampton attack report PROFUL defence report

Very centralVery wide

PROSouthampton shape report PROFUL shape report

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Player	Rating					Rotation
Rodrigo MunizCF · FUL	--	21%	2%	0.91	28%	High	0.01
A. IwobiWG · FUL	--	19%	14%	0.41	89%	Low	0.21
C. ArcherCF · Southampton	--	12%	3%	0.36	47%	High	0.11
R. SessegnonWG · FUL	--	12%	6%	0.35	53%	Medium	0.12
T. Harwood-BellisCB · Southampton	--	9%	2%	0.12	98%	Low	0.00
S. BergeCM · FUL	--	6%	5%	0.13	86%	Low	0.00

33 more players

Southampton Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Fernandes	Corners L and R, 2 short	53	1.6
Fernandes	Free kicks	40	0.6
Manning	Corners L and R, 2 short	32	1.1
Smallbone	Corners L and R, 4 short	26	0.6
Archer	Penalties	1	0.8
Armstrong	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

40%

Free kicks

32%

FUL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Pereira	Corners L and R, 11 short	109	3.4
Lukić	Corners L and R, 6 short	42	1.0
Pereira	Free kicks	35	0.7
Wilson

PROSouthampton set pieces PROFUL set pieces

SouthamptonSouthampton
1-2
FulhamFulham
Stephens 13'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers