Southampton vs Manchester City preview, 10 May 2025: xG form

This match has been played.

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MCI clear favourites away from home.

SOU17%Draw21%MCI62%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Southampton1.0Man City2.1

A 1.1 xG edge, roughly a three-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROSouthampton attack report PROMCI defence report

Deep blockPresses higher

PROSouthampton shape report PROMCI shape report

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Player	Rating					Rotation
Omar MarmoushCF · MCI	--	35%	17%	0.76	80%	Medium	1.48
E. HaalandCF · MCI	--	28%	5%	1.05	36%	High	0.96
N. O'ReillyFB · MCI	--	14%	9%	0.45	54%	Medium	0.00
J. GvardiolFB · MCI	--	13%	7%	0.21	100%	Low	0.02
P. FodenCAM · MCI	--	12%	8%	0.69	30%	High	0.20
J. DokuWG · MCI	--	11%	14%	0.53	50%	High	0.00

36 more players

Southampton Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Fernandes	Corners L and R, 2 short	53	1.6
Fernandes	Free kicks	40	0.6
Manning	Corners L and R, 2 short	32	1.1
Smallbone	Corners L and R, 4 short	26	0.6
Archer	Penalties	1	0.8
Armstrong	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

40%

Free kicks

32%

MCI Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Bruyne	Corners L and R, 33 short	94	2.7
Gündoğan	Corners L and R, 9 short	46	1.7
Foden	Corners L and R, 6 short	46	2.3
Bruyne

PROSouthampton set pieces PROMCI set pieces

SouthamptonSouthampton
0-0
Manchester CityMan City

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers