Southampton vs Tottenham preview, 15 Dec 2024: xG form

15 Dec 19:00

D. England

This match has been played.

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TOT favoured away from home, but only just.

SOU28%Draw23%TOT48%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Southampton1.3Tottenham1.8

A 0.5 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROSouthampton attack report PROTOT defence report

Very low intensityVery high intensity

PROSouthampton shape report PROTOT shape report

Last 6, goals vs xG

SOU3 scored from 4.8 xG-1.8

TOT4 scored from 5.1 xG-1.1

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Very centralEven width

Very cautiousMeasured risk

Drops right offSits off

Patient build-upPossession-based

Middling controlTechnical

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

Southampton Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Fernandes	Corners L and R, 2 short	53	1.6
Fernandes	Free kicks	40	0.6
Manning	Corners L and R, 2 short	32	1.1
Smallbone	Corners L and R, 4 short	26	0.6
Archer	Penalties	1	0.8
Armstrong	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

40%

Free kicks

32%

TOT Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Kulusevski	Corners R, 32 short	59	1.0
Maddison	Corners L and R, 8 short	58	2.3
Porro	Corners L and R, 5 short	54	1.8
Heung-Min

PROSouthampton set pieces PROTOT set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

49%

Throw-ins

20%

SouthamptonSouthampton
0-5
TottenhamTottenham

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers