Southampton vs Wolverhampton preview, 15 Mar 2025: xG form

Viewing the 2024/25 seasonGo to 2026/27

Larsen 18'
Larsen 46'

Premier League 2024/2025

GW29

15 Mar 15:00

R. Jones

This match has been played.

See full analysis

WOL favoured away from home, but only just.

SOU27%Draw25%WOL47%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Southampton1.1Wolves1.5

A 0.4 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROSouthampton attack report PROWOL defence report

Very low intensityMiddling intensity

PROSouthampton shape report PROWOL shape report

Last 6, goals vs xG

SOU3 scored from 4.8 xG-1.8

WOL7 scored from 8.1 xG-1.1

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Patient build-upMixed build-up

Very cautiousMeasured risk

Very centralCentral play

LightMiddling physicality

Drops right offSits off

Middling controlTechnical

Deep blockDeep block

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

Southampton Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Fernandes	Corners L and R, 2 short	53	1.6
Fernandes	Free kicks	40	0.6
Manning	Corners L and R, 2 short	32	1.1
Smallbone	Corners L and R, 4 short	26	0.6
Archer	Penalties	1	0.8
Armstrong	Penalties	1	0.8

Share of set-play xG

Corners

40%

Free kicks

32%

WOL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Cunha	Corners L and R, 4 short	73	2.2
Cunha	Free kicks	34	1.0
Aït-Nouri	Corners L and R, 2 short	30	1.0
Sarabia

PROSouthampton set pieces PROWOL set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

42%

Throw-ins

34%

SouthamptonSouthampton
1-2
WolverhamptonWolves
Onuachu 74'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers