Wolverhampton vs Arsenal preview, 25 Jan 2025: xG form

25 Jan 15:00

M. Oliver

This match has been played.

See full analysis

ARS favoured away from home, but only just.

WOL23%Draw25%ARS52%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Wolves1.0Arsenal1.6

A 0.6 xG edge, roughly a one-in-two win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROWOL attack report PROARS defence report

Deep blockVery high line

PROWOL shape report PROARS shape report

Last 6, goals vs xG

WOL7 scored from 8.1 xG-1.1

ARS12 scored from 11.5 xG+0.5

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Middling controlVery technical

Very cautiousMeasured risk

Patient build-upMixed build-up

LightMiddling physicality

Middling intensityHigh intensity

Central playCentral play

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

WOL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Cunha	Corners L and R, 4 short	73	2.2
Cunha	Free kicks	34	1.0
Aït-Nouri	Corners L and R, 2 short	30	1.0
Sarabia	Corners L and R, 1 short	24	0.7
Sarabia	Free kicks	23	0.3
Aït-Nouri	Free kicks	13	0.6

Share of set-play xG

Corners

42%

Throw-ins

34%

ARS Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Rice	Corners L and R, 11 short	108	5.6
Saka	Corners R, 5 short	64	3.6
Rice	Free kicks	52	1.3
Ødegaard

PROWOL set pieces PROARS set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

56%

Throw-ins

23%

WolverhamptonWolves
0-1
ArsenalArsenal

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers