Wolverhampton vs Aston Villa preview, 1 Feb 2025: xG form

01 Feb 17:30

A. Madley

This match has been played.

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AVL favoured away from home, but only just.

WOL36%Draw26%AVL38%

Based on 76 matches played this season.

Wolves1.3Villa1.4

A 0.1 xG edge, roughly a two-in-five win.

Each side's share of attacking actions down the left, centre and right, on a pitch map.After gameweek 1

A pitch-shaped map per side, shaded by how much each position concedes against them.After gameweek 1

PROWOL attack report PROAVL defence report

Very lightMiddling physicality

PROWOL shape report PROAVL shape report

Last 6, goals vs xG

WOL7 scored from 8.1 xG-1.1

AVL9 scored from 10.1 xG-1.1

32%called correctly

Error score

3% better than guessing the usual home, draw and away split

0.212 against 0.218 for the guess. Lower is better.

Confidence vs realitySaid · got

33-50%

27%·41

50-60%

40%·5

60-70%

67%·3

70-80%

100%·1

Bar is what happened, tick is what the model said. Samples are small this early.

Last 50 settled matchesAccuracy ledger

Patient build-upMixed build-up

Very low intensityMiddling intensity

Drops right offSits off

Middling controlTechnical

Central playCentral play

CautiousMeasured risk

Deep blockSits deeper

Both squads ranked by each player's chance of scoring in this fixture, with assist chance, xGI/90 and projected minutes.When the gameweek is set

WOL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Cunha	Corners L and R, 4 short	73	2.2
Cunha	Free kicks	34	1.0
Aït-Nouri	Corners L and R, 2 short	30	1.0
Sarabia	Corners L and R, 1 short	24	0.7
Sarabia	Free kicks	23	0.3
Aït-Nouri	Free kicks	13	0.6

Share of set-play xG

Corners

42%

Throw-ins

34%

AVL Player	Routine	Taken	xG
Tielemans	Corners L and R, 11 short	84	3.1
Tielemans	Free kicks	57	2.7
Watkins	Penalties	2	1.5
Asensio

PROWOL set pieces PROAVL set pieces

Share of set-play xG

Corners

38%

Free kicks

23%

WolverhamptonWolves
2-0
Aston VillaVilla
Bellegarde 11'
Cunha 96'

Model verdict

Projected xG

Attacking zones vs vulnerabilities

Position vs Expected Position

Style ranks

Form & Head-to-head

Model accuracy

Key players

Set-piece takers